Puff
A heck of a lot of what you say is correct. But a couple of points;
A 737 – 500 would be a great fit for the route and no, it would not be too big as it is the same body as the -200 but with CFM’s and all the other classic improvements. Obviously better range and uplift to boot.
Unfortunately Ozjet did not get one, but neither did Our Airline who are providing a classic by way of the -300 (ala VH –NLK). Air Nauru (the previous name for OA) previously provided a – 400, which was well received by all accounts.
Norfolk has attracted a lot of inappropriate aircraft in the past, with many types needing to make the decision at TOPD whether to proceed to NLK or return to BNE or SYD.
To give the -200 its credit, it could always give a few shots before needing to divert to Noumea or Auckland. With some loads it was apparently possible to loiter for in excess of an hour before having to divert.
The -300 will do better. But for the times that would solve the problems due to the unique weather, it may very well prove to be an expensive fit in the present declining economy and the load factors the present route structure apparently provides.