Lil'KiwiPaddy
A rather good question! History shows that Airlines almost never do what’s in their best, operational interest but instead what’s cheapest. As such, most airlines have either too many pilots or not enough pilots (likewise engineers or ground agents). In fact, the entire industry operates like that. It seems as though there is no foresight at all that’s why this industry is so cyclic.
In my opinion, yes!, airlines will again run CEP programs as things pick up. In the past, a lot of new entries came from the military. As this becomes less viable due to MCC considerations (and a general reduction in the armed forces), airlines are more likely to hire non-service folks. But where to get them? Either an airline will train them or they’re self sponsored.
I’d say that the future will bear less self sponsored pilots as the road to a frozen ATPL is very stony and above all very expansive - and on the other hand the flying job is over all loosing its sex appeal.
Just consider a young fellow pilot who has just spend around 50’000£, may even have a wife and a kid to support, working a local, low paying commuter earning around 1500£. Most of that money is going straight back to the bank the rest is rent and a second job is food and other essentials. (Been there, done that)
As prospective new pilots are making that analysis, under consideration of workload, family sacrifices etc. most will say “it’s not worth it, I’ll just do some private flying and enjoying a Piper or Cessna”. Therefore, but only after the airlines realize that they are running out of pilots (hence the next shortage), CEP programs will be reinstated and will be the general means of selecting, securing and hire procedure of new entries.