Grasp the nettle
GBZ
A coherent point, but why not take the next step? The answer is, very brave.
If Britain really wants to stand up and be counted, to have an impact that is truly is worthy of a 'top table' nation then why not do something brave, something admirable, look the world in the eye and say we can do without our nuclear weapons - and so can you.
The British deterrent is an embarrassing anachronism. Gifted to us by others we have the capability to strike Moscow. Even in the days when that mattered, it didn't matter because our contribution to the apocalypse would hardly have registered.
The same is true today. The UK will never unilaterally use Trident - even if the US were to sanction such use.
The suitcase bomb threat does not exist. The rogue nation threat does not exist. Britain will never trade ICBMs with Iran or China or North Korea or whoever this week's fantasy villain is. Neither can you deter stateless groups or madmen with an SSBN.
The nuclear flag wavers will always shout - you don't know that! What if, what if, what...
The truth is there is no downside to the UK renouncing Trident and using the money for something else – even if it is not defence (and I believe tht it SHOULD be, while recognising that it probably will not). It would be the one thing the nation has done since 1945 to mark it out as a real world leader in something. Waving our second-hand weapons around buys us nothing of value.
You almost admit as much when you say:
>>If we did give it up, what concessions would we wring from the other nuclear Powers? Probably none, which seems a criminal waste of a significant bargaining chip.<<
If it's not worth anything then it's not a bargaining chip. It's a throwback, an anachronism – a waste of our time and money.
If you really, really, really can't live wothout a nuclear blanket well then let's buy ASMP or tweak a few Storm Shadows. That way you can keep your place at the table, your seat at the Security Council and the Americans won't laugh too hard at us... which I suspect is what really worries the decision makers.
So be brave.