Tim,
I actually did an FOI request to the HLF which anyone is welcome to see but it wont tell you a great deal.
I note their latest press article with despair. I haven't done a count up but I guessing that more press releases and news stories they have taken part in have been "if we don't get £x by y date" type. I hope they get a bit more creative and raise the cash but surely they have to change tack to have longer term successes.