Just for those tempted to buy in the sales.....
Put Dreams Of A New HDTV On Pause
Have I caught you in time?
Did you already buy a new HDTV for the holidays? Maybe one of those mythical $500, door-buster thingies?
If you did buy one, that's great. Enjoy your new TV. Just don't read the rest of this column.
OK, still with me? That's good. Because if you haven't bought a new HDTV yet, you definitely do not want to buy one during these holidays - unless the surprise on Christmas morning is worth hundreds more dollars to you. If you can hold off just three more months - just 90 days - you're about to look very smart.
Yes, right now spiffy, 42-inch HDTVs might be selling for less than $1,000. But how does $600 sound? Or maybe $500? Do I have your attention? Good. Prices for HDTVs are about to fall, sharply, again. And here's why.
Reason 1: HDTV prices normally drop between 30 to 40 percent a year, but not gradually. The price drops come in spurts, so the trick is to time your purchase smartly. Which brings me to ...
Reason 2: No more price collusion. Even with those price drops, three major LCD TV makers just confessed to one of the dumbest things companies can do - price fixing. According to the Justice Department, LG Display Co. Ltd., Sharp Corp. and Chunghwa Picture Tubes Ltd. spent their time in meetings colluding to keep their prices up. That prompted a $585 million federal fine. Just my theory, but just like kicking the leg out from under an entertainment center, without that artificial support, prices will have nowhere to go but down.
Reason 3: The awful, awful economy. Big, shiny, luscious HDTVs just about define "discretionary spending." And just about everyone is wondering whether they'll be drawing a paycheck this time next year. So, if you're betting the economy will stay bad, or get worse, then expect TV makers and retailers to have way too many TVs sitting on their shelves after Christmas, prompting a circus of post-holiday sales. But you should still wait another month beyond January.
Reason 4: Many TV makers introduce their new models around February. That's when you'll see newer/bigger models for the same amount of money, and older/smaller models collapse in price as retail outlets look to clear out older stuff. I know February is just after the Super Bowl, but if you must buy a new TV, February is perhaps the smartest month.
For serious TV hunters, here is some more great insider's advice from Jim Willcox, senior editor of Consumer Reports.
Big brand-name TV makers such as Sony, Samsung and Toshiba have started to lose their tolerance for upstart, lesser-known TV makers (such as Vizio) sneaking into the market with private-label brands for warehouse and discount stores. The Big Guys are just starting to fight back with their own lower-priced models. They may not have every bell and whistle, but they can cost $300 to $400 less than their own mainstream versions.
Don't forget a couple extra details. You don't want the 720p resolution. Get a higher resolution 1080p version instead. They look nicer. And a 120Hz "refresh rate" gives LCD TVs smoother images during fast motion sports or car chases. If you know exactly the model you want, check out warehouse clubs such as Costco, which can have terrific return policies.
It's a lot to follow, yes.
So, as a reward for reading this far, I offer these Extra Bonus Tips:
You price-haggle, right? Yes, you can and should haggle over prices - but not necessarily on the HDTV. Normally, HDTVs come with a 13- to 14-percent profit margin, according to industry research. That means there isn't much wiggle room on the TV. But profit margins can top 30 percent on audio equipment, DVD players and such. So if you buy everything together, the retailer will often slash prices on the speakers or a new Blu-ray player to close the deal.
Over the next few months, "It will be a roller coaster for prices," said George Liu, owner of Audio Visions South in Tampa, one of Florida's highest-end audio and video boutiques. He notes prices already came back up after Black Friday. His advice: Get to know a local audio-video expert who can give you advice over time on when to buy and at what price.
Oh, and one more thing. Consider buying at the end of the month. That's when sales managers are trying to make their monthly quotas and are most willing to offer bigger discounts.