After the prerequisite 70 hours in a Cessna for the MPL license, I'll never set foot in a Cessna again; I'll be mastering more technologically advanced equipment, and 12 months later I'll be flying an Airbus A320 and working.
Check the economic picture. In 12 months you'll probably be kicking yourself in the **s, and wishing you could get a job, even flying a Cessna. The MPL doesn't give you the same flexibility as a CPL.
In 10 years, E-R, Flightsafety and others will be offering their own versions of MPL training and will borrow from the Clark experience.
Probably pretty doubtful on your first point unless a couple hundred thousand US commercial and ATP pilots are wiped out by a plague and the FAA approves MPL. Face the facts, MPL and frozen ATPL were developed for rapidly expanding commercial air markets without any GA or 135-equivalent apprenticeship opportunities to train a sufficient number of pilots, and provide the airlines with a low-cost labor force. There's no need for that in E-R or FS's major market.
As to your second point here, I'm pretty sure that any MPL program approved in the US will rely a lot more heavily on the experience the US military has with putting low-time pilots in command of multi-tens-of-millions-of-dollar aircraft, than anything you or CA may dream.
In 20 years, noone will be training in Cessnas any more.
They actually have some decent competition in the trainer market now. Whether they're still a player in that market in 20 years is anybody's guess. But I guess you have a crystal ball, so who WILL be the number one trainer manufacturer of the future?
I know it's hard to see now, but Clark, Alteon and others are pioneers, and data from their experience will be very valuable.
In aviation, that's know as "lessons learned." And it's also a pretty safe bet that in aviation, it's better to learn from someone else's experience than to have go through the tragedy yourself. Thanks for volunteering as a test pilot/guinea pig.
I think anyone who would undergo traditional training now that MPL is here lacks vision and foresight and an understanding and appreciation of the art, science and future of aviation.
I think anyone who would go after an MPL at this point in time, rather than traditional CPL/IR training, lacks the judgement to understand the realities of the world they actually exist in, instead of some future utopian vision. But the roadsides of history are littered with dreamers and their shattered dreams. And of course, there's always folks with more money than sense.
ZFT had a good point. The MPL will allow you to fly right seat in one of two aircraft, registered in countries that actually issue an MPL license. There is a difference between recognizing the MPL license (for a foreign pilot on a foreign aircraft, as required under ICAO regs) and issuing the license for use by one's own pilots and aircraft.
The present, and the future, of aviation would be a dreadfully boring place if the only options to fly were 70 hours of C150/172, and then a lifetime of A320/B737. But, to each his own.