The problem with the Aer Lingus share price now and for the forseeable future is that in reality there is only about 20% or less of the company's available for trade on the free market. The chairman of Aer Lingus made reference to this only last week. To break it down:
Ryanair own 30%
Government own 25%
ESOT 14%
Pilots/Tailwind/DOB 6%
Now that makes up 75% of the overall company. None of these groups are going to sell their shares, and I include the Government in this in the current proposal. They are playing the game of listening to all sides as a concerned shareholder and will make their decision close to Jan 5th. There won't be any surprises either. You can be assured that Ryanair friendly holding companies have another propotion, perhaps even as much as 10% to sell directly to them as part of the takeover proposed. Now what is left is only 15% to the free market. In this 15% you have some of the various Financial institutions, who are probably willing to hold onto their holding. The company has very few individual investors unlike Ryanair. The company hasn't been able to trade freely since the day of the IPO. MOL has publicly stated that even if he is not successful in the takeover this time, Ryanair have no intention of selling it's holding in the company. This is something Aer Lingus management are persuing through advisors and trying to overturn, based on the information given by Mr Barrington to the Oireachtas committee on transport last week. And to finish, the Ryanair share price is hardly setting the world alight at the moment. No company is immune to the current global financial crisis. I just wonder how the Ryanair share price will react to their year end annual results in March 2009.
Last edited by Lord Lardy; 22nd Dec 2008 at 10:27.