404,
I am sure I am telling you to suck eggs but in allocation it would go to the person with the highest points if 2 or more were being 'allocated' leave. Someone bidding for a week, lets say he/she has -64points, will still get it ahead of you being 'allocated' it.
Guys/gals
I know a lot of guys waste their first bids...if there are no slots or it is obvious you don't have the points to get the slots available, don't bother bidding it. All it does is waste your first bid. Every other person has their first bid looked at, regardless of points, and many people with lower points will get their first bid ahead of your second bid. PM if you want me to explain further!
Hard rock, I agree with you. They want to maximise UPL so no point letting full paid leave stop someone from taking UPL, from a company point of view! Our leave is given in advance, not arrears, so as long as it is all used up by end of 2009 there is no 'loss' or liability due to leave. From a cashflow point of view, it is better to have unpaid leave next year and carry over leave to the following year, assuming we all worked full hours. If we are undermanned next year, after UPL, then obviously the smart thing to do is exhaust all leave.
Expectation management
We are heading for a record loss, IMO. The fuel hedge loss is probably around $4billion at todays fuel prices - ultimately it depends on what the fuel prices are on 31/12/08 for the definitive fuel hedge loss. As a going concern we are probably profitable right now - for Oct-Dec anyway, but the losses from Jul-Sep, due fuel prices, will probably mean we will end up at break even for the year, at operating level.
Now as to why companies like to make big write offs? Well, CX is very
PR driven. It is really almost a private company when you consider that Swire/mainland china owns about 75%(i think) so why would they care what the 'headline' figures are. But when you are arguing with CAD about fuel surcharges, relaxing constrictive AFTLS, arguing with suppliers and customers about prices, it helps if it looks like you are really hurting. Yes we are hurting now, but not as badly as it will be made out. There is also an element of 'clearing the decks' - if there is anything dodgy or doubtful then write it off all in one go so that moving forward you will look more profitable.
We 'needed' to make a loss in 97 - we actually made an operating profit that year but for the concessions needed off staff etc we needed to make a loss. So management wrote down the value of the 747classics. Now you might think that is fair enough - and if the written down value is accurate then you could probably expect to lease them(747classics) out for a 10% return. We were actually getting around 25% return - that means the value was too low or the rent was too high...you decide which it was, I have my opinion!
Right now there is much focus on forward bookings falling off. Well think about it - if you were planning to fly J class in 6 months would you book now? No, but six months ago, when things were booming, you would book way ahead just to make sure you got a seat. Now you can sit back as you know there will be seats and you might even get it cheaper by waiting.
Its all about expectation management - if you 'fear' for you job you won't argue about payrises, 13th month, leave etc etc. Additionally, making a huge headline loss will give CX credibility when it argues with customers and suppliers over pricing.
The irony over our impending loss....the $4billion or so we lose on fuel hedge book means we will save $40-50Billion in fuel costs over the next two years - but don't expect to see that in a Friday telex;-)