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Old 13th Dec 2008, 15:30
  #3805 (permalink)  
walter kennedy
 
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You all need to focus on that position of waypoint change (let's call it WPCHX hereon for brevity).
The MOD is adamant that they were under control at that point and that it was already so close in at their speed (I've argued that for a while).
What they do not volunteer is the right turn made at that point – indeed on their maps/diagrams they actually move WPCHX over to the right (further east) so as to give the impression that they flew straight in.
I will give the reasoning for the tracks and turn below but to keep it clear just now I will just say that they were on 027 right up WPCHX.
To get to the crash site from there they would have to have turned right by several degrees.
If you allow a bit for their slewing/veering left in the last few seconds, then that right turn would have had to have been a couple of degrees more.
035 mag from WPCHX passes to the right of the initial impact point by only 150 metres – 4 secs of evasive manouevre to the left – sort of makes sense, doesn't it?
You see 035 was on the handling pilot's HSI.
A deliberate turn – initiated when, as the MOD insists, they were in control - why was this not addressed? - indeed, why have they hidden it in their misleading maps/diagrams?
.
Reasoning
They had declared to ATC that they would be departing Aldergrove on the 027 radial.
The nav data retrieved showed that the GPS/Doppler nav system (SuperTANS) had been quite accurate in the last moments of the flight despite the long sea crossing (can upset the [dominant] Doppler component) – and so it can be reasonably assumed that WPCHX that was preserved in the SuperTANS was an accurate position.
If you extend that 027 radial from the VOR at Aldergrove, it goes right through WPCHX.
This reinforces the conclusion that the SuperTANS was accurate at that point (as for most of the journey they would have been using the GPS/Doppler nav system to maintain their track).
Boeing's analysis gave that they must have held this track closely until WPCHX.
Therefore it is reasonable to assume that the a/c track immediately before and up to WPCHX was 027.
I reckon they had to have turned right at that point - Boeing's analysis gives a turn to the right at that point.
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