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Old 12th Dec 2008, 09:24
  #389 (permalink)  
Bazzamundi
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Australia
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What the forecast is nobody knows, but from those who are flying the line, two things are obvious unfortunately. Currently the amount of hours being flown by those in each rank is much lower than has been for a long time, and the divisors (the amount of hours each roster holder is given) is at the minimum for almost all ranks. This means a lot of reserve line holders.

Secondly, for years it has been almost impossible to get leave. Now, they are offering as much leave as people want, yet they are not getting as many as they need to reduce the numbers. Every roster, people are now getting assigned (forced) to take not just annual leave, but long service leave also.

This all means the amount of flying has really dropped off. Traditionally, recruitment only really ramps up when they are almost on the verge of cancelling flights due to lack of crew. The big cycle turns predictably in this industry, but how long it takes to go the full circle varies. Currently it is on the downward cycle, but like the stock market, who knows where the bottom is.

As to whether the coming 380's will need a lot, it depends on how many aircraft are retired when they turn up. This is what the forecast will tell, but when it is available and how accurate it is - nobody really knows.
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