Hi this my first post here, but a long time AD and a LAME.
I agree that it is easy to jump to conclusions, and i am guilty of this fact, which i am sure we all are at times.
The comparision with Habsheim i feel is warranted, not so much im terms of the circumstances of the accident but the sense that something does not feel right about the picture that we are presented with.
In simple terms and A320 has crashed during the approach component of a flight which by history is when pretty much all A320 accidents have occured. Which is not statistically surprising. Given that it is the most risky and challenging part of flying.
If we remember the Russian A320 last year which would seem to be a very similar if not identical accident. We could possibly make some conclusions that there may be some issue with the A320 or piloting procedures.
My concern is with the CVR and FDR data or the apparent fact that so far the data cannot be recovered. This a very very rare circumstance.
Consider this: Two different components, located physically in different locations of the aircraft operating off different power circuits, have suffered the same technical failure.
Has that happened before? Silk Air? or this one here?
http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/...rimFactual.pdf
Thing is that in both of these events the relevent data is missing, but previous data is recovered. Which tends to the theories that they have been disabled on purpose during flight (Silk Air) or before the flight (ATSB Report).
My eyebrows were rasied the minute i read that the Data from both recorders has so far been unrecoverable. From a techincal and statistical point of view the chances are incredibly small.
Impact with the water is indeed a lot harder than most would expect. But the dynamics of impact with water also tends to result in the tail sections to snap and rotate over the fwd section of the aircraft, which results in a much slower impact than the front of the aircraft. Of course this depends on angle of impact and speed, which we don't know in this case. An thus total speculation, which is human nature if anyone cares to argue with.
Eitherway the impact forces on the Recorders would normally be quite low with respect to the initial impact and they should easily be able to withstand an accident of this nature. Note the Metroliners recorders had reasonable damage, but there was no real problem getting the data which was on recorded tape, where the A320 would be solid state which is more robust.
So for me there is cause for concern, but i hope i am wrong.
If i might add, NZ and France do still have a strained relationship, given Frances antics surrounding the Rainbow Warrior bombing, so if I sound cynical about the BEA, you should not be surprised.