Having seen a better translation of the new visa exemption rule (the official translation is still not available, which is disgusting considering the rules are now in force at all borders and ports and these changes are f*cking up the holidays of people arriving in the country as we speak), it appears that passengers arriving on all flights into Thailand - not just longhaul flights - are still eligible for the 30 day visa exemption (subject to the proof of onward travel within 30 days clause, which probably still won't be enforced anyways).
So it may mean that people wishing to leave and re-enter Thailand to get another visa exemption stamp will consider taking a return low cost flight to a neighbouring country now, rather than doing overland border runs, because all land border entries made without visas will only get you 15 visa exempt days at a time.
The ever-growing price of flights with the likes of Air Asia and Tiger will probably just make people think that getting a £28 tourist visa is the best option though.
I still think it's bad for the Thai tourist industry. Considering the ever-increasing cost of travelling within the region as a whole, the cost of short notice bookings even with low cost carriers compared to overland travel options, and the relative flexibility offered by the tourist visa and overland modes of transport as opposed to strict flight timings from a limited number of airports, I just think people will either continue to use land borders and curtail their time in Thailand, or buy visas and carry on crossing at land borders. The cost of the visa and overland travel is still a much cheaper and more flexible option than booking a return flight. The visa has the added advantage of permitting folks to stay for 60 days (and extend to 90 for a fee), as opposed to the 30 days offered by the visa exemption.
I don't see longhaul operators being affected much by this particular change (although travel to Thailand in general is gonna be hurt by the other things that have happened recently), but the low cost carriers are going to feel it I think. The continuation of the 30 day visa exemption rule for flights might be seen by savvy travellers as a ploy to get them to use airlines, but with the costs of travel in the region soaring I think more and more people are already seeing shorthaul flights within the region as being a luxury that they want to trim out in order to save on costs.
People scoff at the backpacker crowd, but they are undisputably the biggest tourist revenue generators in Thailand (it's official - the Thai government stats are available online if anyone's interested, and they are surprisingly comprehensive). As mentioned before, many of them use Thailand as a hub for travelling within the region, and between them they make hundreds and thousands of overland border crossings each year. You can't understimate their input into the Thai economy.
In recent years the search has been on amongst travellers and holidaymakers for the 'new Thailand', and this move won't help Thailand's plight at all. As air links to its neighbouring countries improve and drop in price, Thailand will suffer. People are already turning their backs on Thailand anyway, and tweaking the border rules like this has a further adverse effect. Thailand is gonna hurt badly soon anyway, considering they are an export economy that relies heavily on the US for trade.
This rule change risks making tourists resent travelling to Thailand, and is certainly already pissing off a large section of its key tourism base. I don't think it will benefit the regional airlines one bit.
There's a bit of snobbery going on surrounding this issue. Some folks are saying that the change to the visa exemption rule is a good thing, because it forces people to get the 'correct documentation' (i.e. visas) together before travelling to Thailand. There seems to be an ill conceived argument that getting visa exemptions is somehow an underhand thing to do. It's not. That's nonsense. Entering a country on a visa exemption is obviously completely legitimate by design. Even leaving and re-entering multiple times to continue to take advantage of the benefits of it is perfectly legitimate too. Some people seem to suggest that 'playing the system' like this is deviant. It's not. It is the system - not an abuse of it. Visa exemptions exist for that very reason - to make certain people exempt from having to get a visa. The cap on the amount of days you can spend in Thailand under the visa exemption rule ensures that the system cannot be abused.
Last edited by harrogate; 4th Dec 2008 at 15:35.