Letter I wrote to the editor of our local Rotorua paper regarding this issue.
Basically, I can see both sides but I'm not convinced it will happen and be a success. Though I would love to see international flights from my local airport.
I am excited to see work at Rotorua airport going ahead, and I hope to see international flights operating from Rotorua soon.
However, I am not entirely convinced that they will be a complete success. First of all, both Qantas and Air New Zealand are quickly losing enthusiasm and commitment for the Rotorua market. Air New Zealand are supposedly withdrawing domestic jet services from Rotorua next season (which may come as a major blow - retaining these jet services has been high in the list of priorities for Rotorua), and Qantas apparently only serves Rotorua because of contractual reasons. Pacific Blue does not yet fly to Rotorua, neither does Jetstar (although there are several rumours regarding Jetstar), and the current economic climate may prevent any airline expansion for the forseeable future. There are essentially no other airlines in a realistic position to serve Rotorua.
Furthermore, TravelTrade New Zealand has said that both Air New Zealand and Qantas have confirmed that they have no plans to operate trans-Tasman flights from Rotorua.
In addition, the provincial airports have not traditionally been successes when it comes to international flying. Hamilton, Dunedin and Palmerston North have all seen downturns in passenger numbers and cuts in service. Queenstown is the notable exception - it is a tourist trap that continues to enjoy high demand and high levels of service. The recent New Zealand Aviation Overview released by the Ministry of Tourism further reiterated this fact.
Of course, Rotorua is a considerable tourist market, although this mainly comes from Asia rather than from Australia. For this reason, international flights are more feasible from Rotorua than they are from many of the other provincial airports who would like such services. I think there is huge potential for international services from Rotorua and would love to see it happen, although I'm not convinced that they will be an ultimate success. I am hopeful, but cautious where Rotorua trans-Tasman services are concerned - a huge amount of money and work is required, and I would hate to see it all go to waste.