My guess is that FR will overbook by 4 pax, so the highest the flight could be overbooked at is 193. Why?
Because those 4 pax are actually staff traveling, on staff tickets, and if the flight is fully loaded, then the said 4 can be seated in the spare jump seats (2 at the rear of the a/c, 2 in the flight deck)
Just my guess.
Rgds,
ATS