Just a few thoughts
WWW, Your point is well made and I'm old enough to remember the last serious recession and the one before that when my final board interview for BA Cadet was cancelled due to the first Gulf War and by the time the scheme reopened years later I was too old for the scheme.
I am most definately not encouraging anyone to start training now, however I do feel that the media has perhaps blown the financial crisis out of proportion. For a bunch of overpaid city bankers they are being hit hard (and about time too) but for the normal working man with no savings and only debts in fact so far it's pretty much all good news - a huge cut in interest rates has meant hundreds less a month being paid on the mortgage and as long as you aren't made redundant the 'real economy' is (so far) relatively untouched. I can't honestly see people's behaviour changing that dramatically - witness the bustling shops every weekend. I don't know about your airline but mine (Flybe) are certainly doing quite nicely at present and my wife's (BA) after initially panicking when the fuel price shot up are now indicating things aren't as bad as they feared and are already calling people again out of the hold pool.
I certainly foresee the next 12-18 months being tough for recruitment but I just don't see the 5 year recession you do.
Anyway, I suspect if either of us were that good at predicting the future we'd be driving a DB9 and working for a hedge fund! Incidentally I completely agree with your point about this being a profession in decline.
With kind regards,
Desk-pilot