I'm afraid the industry now is in a bit of a spin at the moment and despite bootfulls of rudder they cannot get out of it. IMHO The problems are twofold:-
1) The economic downturn has been made worse by 11 Sept and the general negativity from the press. I'm sure members of the press are all lovers of the Dad's Army character whose favourite saying was "Doomed! We're all doomed!" I'll bet there are certain little 5hits in Wapping and the likes rubbing their hands in glee at finally convincing the public that the whole economy is in recession when clearly it was only the manufacturing segment in trouble. The old adage about if you say something often enough people will believe you is very true in this case.
2) Consumer confidence in the industry is rock bottom. I am hearing more and more people saying they don't want to book flights in case the airline collapses! Unfounded worries? Maybe. But who can blame them? Six months ago who would have predicted that Swissair and Ansett would be in the state they are now? All but the rosiest tinted glasses wearers expected big losses but few would have foreseen this.
While MOL and Stelios are out there saying "come in, the waters lovely" by offering lots of cut price deals, what are the big boys doing? Bleating and moaning and looking for Government handouts that's what. Not only that they are increasing prices! BA announced on 1 October that the cost of their round the world tickets would increase by as much as 30% in some markets! Madness. Absolute madness! I'm sure some folk in Waterworld went to the Reggie Perrin "Grot" School of Economics (for those outside the UK this is a reference to a comedy series in the 70's in which the main character had shop where he put prices up by 50% during Sale time!)!
I am normally against Government subsidy. However, for the greater economic good we cannot allow the major airlines to fail. Not only will this have a serious impact on our own economy but in poorer countries too. If the tourists cannot get there or if only the rich can afford too, then these countries will suffer. They will then become breeding grounds for all sorts of fundamentalists and extremists. And we all know what happens then.
If the Governments do bail out the Airlines, strict conditions will need to be put in place. The bailout should be paid back out of future profits. This should be at the expense of shareholders and not as a levy on customers in the form of increased fares. After all if the airline had been allowed to go tits-up what would they have got? Bermuda II also needs to be urgently revised. Lets have real competition at LHR. I could go on but I’m sure you get the drift.
We can all play a part in turning this around. What ever part of the industry you are involved with, whether it is as an employee or a customer, get out there and tell anyone who will listen that flying is safe. For those inside the industry use works forums, unions, etc to get Management thinking up initiatives to get people flying. It didn’t take MOL and Stelios long to come up with the answer!
bmi said today that there has been a substantial drop in Business Class traffic since 11 Sept. The reasons for this are easy to see. Many companies, particularly American based multinationals, have banned their staff from flying! For example, IBM is severely restricting UK and European travel and has completely banned travel to the Middle East. Cisco employees are only allowed to fly on “business critical” journeys and even then must have it signed off by a senior VP! It is organisations such as these that are the life-blood to many airlines. Get these guys back in the air and you are starting to win the battle. I would hope the big boys have all their sales teams knocking down the doors of their biggest clients trying to get these unnecessary restrictions lifted.
[ 03 October 2001: Message edited by: Gaza ]