Pilots seem particularly prone to self-delusion on the oil issue, it's notable by the lack of any sound arguments on the major points of the theory, other than the usual: "there's plenty of oil yet to be found", aswell as the confusion that it's something to do with the environmental movement. The most common response: "oil isn't running out" is profound since none of the serious supporters of the peak oil theory actually believe that either.
Although, it is encouraging that I've never heard amongst the aviation community my personal favourite answer: "Jesus will save us".
Originally Posted by Rainboe
This Peak Oil nonsense relies on all reserves being known now. They are finding more oil all the time- the latest is a big find off Rio, and oil extraction is vastly improving all the time. As oil gets more pricey, alternatives will be found, but it's not at $200 yet, it's actually nearer $60!
If you want to believe there is no career in aviation, you are naive and stupid, and better you go into something else and leave more room for new starters! Sorry to be brutal, but if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!
The Brazilian find is indeed interesting, but the current estimate of proven reserves is still far below that of Ghawar.
Please, if you're going to criticise or throw insults, at least read what's been said. I didn't say oil is running out. That comment alone demonstrates sincere lack of understanding of the issues.
So Rainboe, if as you say, I'm "naive and stupid", then could you please explain to me:
1) Why oil prospectors (armed with ever increasing exploration budgets) are deliberately finding smaller and smaller reserves and why these reserves are getting harder and harder to access?
2) Why the water-cut of the worlds largest producing oil fields is increasing rapidly?
3) How Russia can actually increase their production even though they've publicly announced that they have already peaked and are now in decline?
4) Why you unquestioningly believe OPEC when they say "We have plenty of oil - just trust us" - yet they refuse to publish any verifiable data?
5) Why OPEC countries sovereign wealth fund investments in surface-based transportation (rail, shipping, etc...) far outweighs their investments in aviation related industries?
Oh of course, I forgot, asking these questions simply shows that I'm "stupid and naive".