Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
How soon ? Research by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicts oil production capacity is set to grow by 25% by 2015 and spare crude capacity to grow from 2 million barrels to 12 million barrels by 2010.
CERA have always been the one lone voice with anything more than an armchair-level of expertise who have offered an opposing opinion, which makes them worth listening to.
However, I've always doubted their prognostications because:
i) I'm not convinced of their impartiality.
ii) The only thing that seems to have been consistent with them is that they have been consistently wrong on their predictions - not just on actual dollar figures (which any rational mind can excuse) but on the overall price trend.
iii) They ascertain that, "We're right and everyone else is wrong. Just trust us.". Which, by failing to release the underlying figures that their research is based on, puts them right next to OPEC or an Icelandic bank in their trustworthiness. Their, "It's a fact - but we can't tell you why" stance is reminiscent of Tony Blair before the Iraq invasion.
One of their more recent predictions set the peak or plateau beginning not before 2020. Which means that they agree with the underlying theory, just disagreeing on some of the predictions for anticipated supply & demand.
I value their contributions to this topic though. It's crucial to hear both sides of the argument in order to build an informed judgment.