Firstly, automated flight:-
Originally Posted by Slipstream86
Airbus have stated publicly that "their aircraft will always have two flight crew"
and
Originally Posted by Reluctant737
V6G,
Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!
Kind Regards, A
Firstly, I didn't say pilotless aircraft. I said two-pilot aircraft where one pilot is on the ground controlling many others simultaneously. Sure, Airbus may have stated their intentions (and I wasn't aware of that - thanks!) but what will happen if Boeing offered a competing product where, although the plane still had two seats in the cockpit, one of them is empty for the certification flights? The airlines will be free to choose if they have 1 or 2 pilots onboard - and this will be reflected in the ticket price. If an airline today can increase profit by removing paltry things like inflight magazines think of the competitive discounts to be made by being able to operate a fleet with only half the number of pilots.
Technically, there's no reason why it can't be done today. It's just the public perception, and this will change over time - particularly when the tickets are cheaper! Remember the initial skepticism when the Channel Tunnel first opened? No doubt there were the same concerns when air travel first dawned on the world.
And now oil:-
Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
I have worked in the oil industry and know lots of people still working in it, it's widely considered oil supplies will not run out in our life times. There are still untapped reserves and the technology to recover what is left in the ground is on it's way and in some cases already exists.
I wouldn't worry about future job prospects based on the supply of oil i'd be more concerned about the tree huggers.
Nobody is suggesting that oil is going to "run out" in our lifetimes. My suggestion is that very soon, supply will begin to decline (or more likely, enter a prolonged plateau) and be unable to keep up with increasing demand. That means higher and higher prices which means less & less mass transportation. To consider how a high relative cost of transportation might affect our lives in the future, just look back at the past. The 90's brought long-haul travel to the comfortably-employed middle class - Florida became affordable for the annual family holiday as well as an easter trip to Spain to mix with the working class. In the 1980's it was for the families and package holidays. In the 1970's air travel was mostly for the wealthy/upper class with good jobs - once a year to the Med. In the 1950's-60's it was only for the super-rich / film-stars.
Untapped oil reserves are great, but are they anywhere near the size of the giant fields currently in production (eg Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) and will they be able to increase production at a rate that is greater than the decline in other fields (eg the North Sea)?
And I'm not too worried about the environmentalists. Public opinion will rapidly sway once standard-of-living begins to be affected. Notice how you don't hear too much about the environment now the economy has taken a tumble.
Originally Posted by hitmanishere
crude oil.....We wont need em anymore to fly in 10-20yrs... Didnt you guys know the A380 already flew on BIO-FUEL.....
Bio-fuel is great, so long as the rich world can accept forcing the poor world into starvation by displacing their food production. The
food riots in Haiti earlier this year, demonstrated that it's easier to make people in poor countries starve than it is to get us in rich countries out of our SUVs. The question is, in the future, which countries will be the "rich" ones - and how rich is "rich"?
Originally Posted by LambOfGod
In my oppinion... The number 1 priority for oil should be aviation. Cars can suffer the 'extra' weight of batteries.
Although, I still have nothing against anyone who wants a petrol car for a hobby. In the future of course... When Electric/Hydrogen/(other) have taken to the skies (not litterally).
I agree that ground-based transportation (particularly urbanised commuting) is a gross waste of a valuable resource when there are far better alternatives available. However, for aviation, there is currently nothing that even comes close to a viable replacement for oil.