Contacted covered 95% of what I was thinking. I believe that the DEC thing will be dead now, Airbus guys are 4.5 years and Boeing is over 3.5 years now and will extend with the machinist strike in Seattle. Yeah, I know, we'll get airplanes fast and furious now, but only as fast as Boeing can push them out the door, which means the time is lost permenantly.
As well, I believe we will see oil spike up again as it's severely oversold and besides, supply and demand will drive it high, fast (read the latest IEA reports). If that comes along with lots of big aircraft in the next couple of years, you could see the parking of some of the older stuff, 345s, 343s, 332s and 772s if this credit crisis is prolonged, which many a great mind think it will be. Most think EK is immune, but the only thing that would keep it all going in REALLY tough times would be arrogance and blindness. Or blind faith maybe.
Just think about it, it is a good job, erroding every year, but still good. But it's not inconceievable to be 4,5,6 years to command. Time will tell.