Has anyone considered that expansion and orders may slow down with the reduced passenger loads that must be on the horizon? Even mideast airlines will not fly half empty planes no? Economic down turn in the high traffic areas(India, Europe etc) means less loads, surely this means a freeze in expansion for now at least. This will directly affect your upgrade predictions, no expansion= aircraft crew numbers correct which in turn = no more upgrade. If this is the case, watch out for a 2-3 year freeze. The economic mess just hit us within the last month,it will take a few months for the airline anaysts to see pax loads down,for example early 09. At that point I wouldnt be surprised to see a slow down or pause in expansion for EK/EY/QR,in which case upgrades and movement will cease. If the FOs upset,so what...no ones hiring.Dream situation for management of these airlines,finally they have a low worldwide demand for pilots. Soon to be in the era of being grateful for a job rather than worrying which seat youre in. Just a thought,surprised it not been brought up yet.