EK 4457: Well I was a flying instructor for 7 years and I've seen a few downturns before. I know this year has been good for schools. A lot of airline recritment has seen FI turnover be quite high. A lot of people have made a lot of money out of house price inflation and a booming economy and the baby boomer generation is now retiring. Those 25% pension draw downs often find their way into GA. Good, I'm really pleased.
But.
Recession. Its here. You know it, I know it and within a couple of months the official figures will show it.
Secondly a HPC means the effective end of the £9BILLION a year mortgage equity withdrawal spending in the consumer economy. Regardless of anyone losing anything or selling anything. On top of that negative equity or fear of it hits consumer spending particularly on discretionary leisure services like flying instruction. Always has done, always will.
Thirdly yes Winter is a slowdown time for flying schools and there are plenty of part time instructors who barely work over the winter and full timers who are really part time by November. I was one for a year or two. I can show you a few FTO's who are pretty damn quiet in February every year.
The FTO's going under will be along shortly and the instructors looking for work the same morning. Wish it weren't so but it will be.
Hell a little hiccup like Sept 11th sent PPSC, SFT, Four Forces and European Flyers bust within months.
But as you only did a PPL in 2006 you probably don't appreciate that people like me (and I'm early 30's so not too crusty yet) have been in this business long enough to have seen this all before. Your ignorance of what has gone before leads you to dismiss me as some tedious delusionist. Fair enough. I can understand that.
I can offer no advice regarding FI opportunities in the sub-continent as I know nothing about that.
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