It wouldn't be honest to have an different opinion now,so I am still with my theory.
Maybe we are 3000 ATCOs short at the moment but it doesn't mean that there will be 3000 available posts for newcomers. It is just an argument when unions and associations talk with the management.
Also shortage is solved differently from country to country . Solutions are:
-TIBA- legal issue as 5 nm or 1000'
-Overtime- as long as there are ATCOs with credit debts
-Single person operation - Uberlingen wasn't good example,
probably there is more options so let others name it.
Does anyone still believe that there will be this winter the same amount of traffic worldwide?
With the crisis already in house I am pretty sure that it will be reduction. Significant one.
To be honest crisis wouldn't be the same for everyone,but the crisis will be highest at the places with the highest level of commercial air traffic.
I predicted it 3 years ago(with different inputs ) and I wrote about it 6 months ago at this forum when some " expert" said that it was wrong prediction.
But we will wait for little,for official CFMU data than you will see.
The only problem with those data that they will on European level show unrealistic figures. Since there is (in Europe) countries with different backgrounds some of them will show increase. But it is not for everyone. Because 1 operation per day more at some places means 100% of rise.
If I remember correctly I wrote that ANSPs managers in the first world know about crisis and the effects so that was the reason why they didn't increase numbers of ATCOs. Maybe there was a hole yesterday,but tomorrow there would be over staffing.
Ironically, HR managers did great job. For future,of course.
From my point of view the real problem will occur in 4/5 years.
We will catch now ,traffic /and staffing level. Than we won't have enough money to invest in training and new positive cycle will arrive and we won't be ready for such scenario.
By 2013 , I would have run my caffe at Mauritius . The only problem will be what kind of equipment for diving that day.
That's the problem!
