Jackonicko,
You ask if I am 'sure' that taxying in excess of the max structural (by one tonne) didn't cause or exacerbate the blow out?
I stated that I did not believe it to be a significant contributory factor. I am not 'sure' about anything. One tonne over max structural amounts to approx 1/2% of max gross weight, so what do you think? There are other factors that 'may' lead to tyre failure; for example under inflation of the affected tyre or it's opposite tyre on a shared axle can have devastating consequences. I'm not suggesting that was the case here, but it may have been and we will never know.
The missing spacer would have had an effect, but it would be irresponsible of me to attempt to quantify that effect. It is unlikely that we will ever know with certainty the effect of that and many other factors in this accident. Human beings like to see answers in perfect black and white but aviation, in common with many other facets of life, turns out to be many shades of grey.
The tower reported a tailwind component but 'perhaps' there was other evidence to suggest to Capt. Marty and his crew that this was not the case. I have certainly been given wind reports from the tower at various airports worldwide that are at variance with my observation of a windsock or smoke. On most occasions I will discuss this with the other crew before departure but I do remember on one occasion just pointing at the windsock and smiling. The CVR will not record this. We will never know for 'sure', will we, exactly what the wind was.
I appreciate Jackonico that you wish to ensure airline professionals can learn lessons from this tragedy. I believe that they will.
My view on whether an 'off airfield' crash would have been survivable. For what it is worth I am with Wino on this one and believe the chances of surviving are very small indeed; hence my previous remark about Capt. Marty being between a rock and a hard place. Hindsight is the clearest of all so we now know that the final actions ended in tragedy. Perhaps landing straight ahead would have ended with a similar result. If so who amongst us here would now be asking, "Why didn't Capt. Marty attempt to land at Le Bourget?"
Regards
Exeng