Guv
You are 180 out (re the Chinese and Pakistan). It's the most vital alliance influencing this crisis.
<a href="http://www.msnbc.com/news/678703.asp" target="_blank">http://www.msnbc.com/news/678703.asp</a>
"The Pakistani president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has demonstrated no panic. He returned late Monday from a five-day trip to China and has spent the last two days in Karachi on domestic business, far from his military headquarters in Rawalpindi."
The reason why Musharraf is not panicking is because he has had the usual assurances from China that Pakistan will be backed to the hilt by China. India has a very long border with China and many unsettled border disputes lie festering (some as recent as the 50's and 60's). Both Sri Lanka and Pakistan's military see China as a preferred military supplier. Pakistan's short and medium range ballistic missiles are of Chinese origin, as are most of their combat aircraft. China is in every way Pakistan's strategic partner in the region and that's been the case for over two decades now.
India may be pee'd off, but it would be quite foolish for Vajpayee to end up in a nuclear stoush with China as well over Jammu and Kashmir. It's still the same China that wouldn't have its bluff called by Gen McArthur in the 50's. If India instigates anything they can expect a horde of Chinese regiments all up and down their common border. For every tactical nuke India throws at Pakistan they can expect one back from China. That is unfortunately how the Chinese model works - when alliances are tested.