cmq per lo spiraglio per i wannabe, i prossimi anni saranno duri a prescindere da az.
Secondo la iata siamo solo all'inizio del peggior downturn.
qui un'articolo molto interessante al riguardo:
By Kevin Done in London
Published: September 3 2008 22:21 | Last updated: September 3 2008 22:21
Airline losses are forecast to exceed $5bn this year with the industry expected to remain heavily in loss in 2009, under pressure from high oil prices and a sharp slowdown in the rate of growth in demand for air travel.
Giovanni Bisignani, director-general of Iata, the global airline trade association, said year-on-year growth in passenger demand had fallen to 1.9 per cent in July, the lowest level for five years.
Air cargo volumes, a barometer for world trade, fell 1.9 per cent year-on-year in July, the second successive monthly decline.
Asia-Pacific carriers, the largest participants in the air cargo market, reported a 6.5 per cent drop in demand.
Weaker economic growth outside the US is being reflected in a deterioration in the outlook for both air travel and freight, and Iata said it had revised down its forecast for traffic growth.
Industry losses are being exacerbated by growing overcapacity as rising deliveries of new aircraft leave airlines flying with more empty seats and capacity growth exceeds growth in traffic volumes.
“The situation remains bleak,” said Mr Bisignani. “The toxic combination of high oil prices and falling demand continues to poison the industry’s profitability.”
The recent fall in the crude oil price from the record level of $147 a barrel reached in July has eased airlines’ worst fears about the outlook, but Mr Bisignani said the year-to-date average was still $113 a barrel, $40 more than the $73 a barrel average in 2007.
The rise was expected to push the global industry fuel bill up by $50bn this year to $186bn, with fuel accounting for 36 per cent of industry costs up from 13 per cent in 2002.
Mr Bisignani said that more than 25 airlines had collapsed since the start of the year. Last week Italy ’s Alitalia went into administration and Anglo-Canadian Zoom Airlines ceased operations.
He said the situation was expected to deteriorate further in the coming winter months as traffic volumes declined and airlines struggled to maintain cashflows to pay salaries and fuel bills.
“This crisis is reshaping the industry in more severe ways than the demand shocks of Sars [the epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome] and 9/11 [the September 11 2001 terror attacks in the US ],” said Mr Bisignani.
“When fuel goes from 13 per cent of your costs to 40 per cent in seven years, you simply cannot continue to do business in the same way. Fundamental change is needed.”
In the six years between 2001 and 2006 the global airline industry suffered net losses of $42bn and only returned to a $5.6bn profit in 2007.
Iata forecast that the industry would plunge back to a loss of $5.2bn this year (assuming an average oil price of $113 a barrel) with a further net loss of $4.1bn expected in 2009 (at an oil price of $110 a barrel).
Fuel could account for 40 per cent of total airline industry costs next year, as hedging provided less protection. The industry in North America is being hardest hit with forecast losses of $5bn this year and $4bn in 2009 compared with a profit of $2.8bn last year.
Profits in Asia-Pacific are forecast to fall from $900m last year to $300m in 2008 with profits in Europe falling from $2.1bn to only $300m this year.
Iata said most economies were expected to deliver weaker economic growth next year.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008