Kerry is an example of Ryanair's (perhaps understandable) Irish-centric view of the world. Would they bother flying there if it were not in Ireland?
first half of 2008:
ORK - EMA: Average flown LF: 57%.
EMA - SNN, LF 47%
Such results are certainly far from acceptable. However, regardless of the supposedly Irish-centric view, Ireland is just an indicator of the issues to come in the low-cost market. Namely, its saturation is very near if nothing changes. Of course, there still exist some niche areas to be exploited*, but the classic model of low-cost travelling shows an acute need for changes. I tend to agree with one of my predecessors that a demand stimulating solution could be found in a WISE use of connecting flights. With point to point-only routes still existing as a core business and, alongside, connecting flights to destinations with less populated areas around. I do believe in some sort of convergence approaching in the aviation world. That's because more flexibility and versatility can expand the area of competition between the different groups of airlines. No-frills can compete very well on main routes, but by refusing to provide more comprehensive selection of destinations they cannot challenge legacy airlines, being unable to provide the diversity required. The point to point system is a main obstacle here.
MOL looks as if he were too slow to adapt to the present situation when his airline is much bigger than in early years and there are (too) many other lcc's around. Growing older? Oops, I'm older than him... well, never mind!
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* the areas to be exploited? Not much left.
- Russia. Very difficult market, hard to penetrate. St. Petersburg as an exception (close to the EU border)
- Central Europe. Not much left, maybe a few places like Munich in Germany, Central France if a base created
- Ireland/UK: almost saturated
- Iberian peninsula: present fast progress shows the signs of slowing
- Italy. Some opportunities if Alitalia takes a few steps back
- Eastern EU: Hmm. From Poland to Rome? Poles will always be keen to see the Pope
. Some links to Spain?
- Northern Europe: Sweden sees much competition, routes from Finland to the South: still unexploited
- South-Eastern Europe. Greece. While too distant from the Islands, suitable to access from the Central European bases
But not so much overall.