gupta, yes sadly I think you are right.
Horatio Leafblower;
Rural centres as you list make me pay to land there, something else I'm not fussed about. However if I do need to go there on the rare occasion I can't equate any cost or safety benefit for me or the paying passenger.
Do you know there are a lot of rural pilots with licences that are restricted to "OCTA only", I personally know five, cuts down on flying training and I believe makes those extra hours available from the syllabus add toward a better pilot if you have no need to fly into those places. I reckon most glider pilots and RAA blokes are not qualified to fly into or transit control zones except GAAP.
Do these owner pilots need ADSB? Last I saw were 7,000 RAA members alone.
I can see a benefit for ATC mainly and those RPT that believe they must have a sterile environment in which to operate. My answer to that is they should pay. (which the subsidy half addresses), After all those airports have a tower and separation now. The introduction of ADSB here amounts to the double condom theory.
No amount of gadgetry or money can guarantee "absolute safety". That is a myth used by the enthusiasts to scaremonger.
Which brings us back to the "subsidy" which I,as a pessimist, believe may not happen. Governments and their departments don't have a good track record of keeping promises.
What happens then?