PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Old 29th Aug 2008, 12:16
  #1260 (permalink)  
Wee Weasley Welshman
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
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lol

Not a single airline has gone out of business because of a crash in house prices, the reason airlines have gone bust is purely because of oil prices. You certainly werent on here predicting an oil spike 12 months ago.

You mention zoom going out of business, but the reason they went out of business was an increased fuel bill of $50 million. To say oil prices is a sideshow is ridiculous. If anything oil prices has been the main event and recession has been the sideshow.

Oh they all cite oil prices. Ain't the case though.

Overnight Gordon Brown invented £10 Air Passenger Duty and slapped it on every ticket. At that time the typical easyJet fare was £32, Ryanair £34 (they did slightly longer average sectors back then) and therefore the APD represented about a 27% overnight rise in average fares.

The current oil shock from $60 to $120 dollars only adds a similar 27% increase to operating costs and therefore ticket prices.


The difference is that when APD was introduced the economy was ticking along and the customers absorbed the price rises without batting an eyelid. Both companies posted record profits the year after.

The difference now is the recession.

The real difference comes next year. When the actual passenger numbers travelling drops as people choose not to travel at ANY price. The air ticket is a very small component of a trip away. Its marginal price variation due to fuel cost isn't what's going to send airlines bust.

Sorry, oil is the sideshow.

Same as in the 1970's oil shock. The real damage was the resulting recession.

Take a look at economic history. Its illuminating. Probably why they never teach it in school.

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