PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Old 29th Aug 2008, 12:00
  #1258 (permalink)  
Re-Heat
 
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Not a single airline has gone out of business because of a crash in house prices, the reason airlines have gone bust is purely because of oil prices.
Not necessarily. While they claimed that the fuel bill had become too much, what we do not know is how many passengers, and for what fares, they had actually been carrying over their network.

If they have had to raise fares to cover costs, and fewer have travelled as they feel worse off - either due to house prices or losing jobs in the financial industry - it is highly conceivable that they were hit from both sides - falling revenue, yields, and rising fuel prices.

What the fuel price saga conceals is the massive over-capacity of the industry in some areas, that is simply unable to support reasonable fare levels. Even in the US, net capacity has until recently been rising, despite prescient comments from many on that not being sustainable.

If Zoom had restricted themselves to Canadain Affair holidays and some scheduled sales on flights to Canadian destinations, instead of diversifying into a full network, long-haul, low-cost carrier, they may have been in a very different situation today.

In conclusion, to blame it on the fuel price alone, is simply half a story. Remember that oil prices are driven by demand - demand that has been created by the worlds' industries themselves, and not some extraneous factor.
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