Bob
You have probably answered your own question in the comment
if the subsidy does not materialise, will those organisations that supported the concept based on that premise, then take to oppose it afterwards.
If you support something conditionally and the condition is breached then it seems likely the support is automatically cancelled.
But, don't ask we researchers - ask the organisations.
I do keep using the word "RISK" as you well state. When I buy a car I don't buy it to prang so why should I pay for ABS, airbags, seatbelts, traction control, etc if I use your philosophy. These technological advances don't affect we safe drivers on Class G roads and i haven't seen any cars coming at me yesterday so that proves it.
Fact is ADS-B opens up a whole raft of risk mitigators and via ADS-B IN gives the PIC another tool to reduce risk. Bit like the "Terrain" on my Garmin 495 given I have no intention of CFIT - who needs it.
Your arguments have no sound basis except that dinosaurs once roamed the earth.