I like all of these predictions of doom and gloom. Unfortunately, it is not a new tune.
“In early March Continental Airlines struck a possibly lethal blow at USAir, but the bell that tolls for USAir tolls not for it alone but perhaps for United, American, Delta and Northwest as well. The full service airline as we know it almost since the dawn of the aviation age may be doomed.”
“It is a sure bet that well before the end of the century American, United, Delta, Northwest, and USAir will radically change the way they operate. That, or join Pan Am, Eastern and Braniff in the full service carrier boneyard.”
--- Excerpts from Forbes Magazine, May 9, 1994, “A Sixties industry in a Nineties economy”
Don’t hold your breath waiting for the doors to shut. It took Eastern and Pan Am thirteen years to die after deregulation. Look how long TWA limped on with a lamprey attached.
So what kills an airline, high labor costs or management egos? If you think it’s labor costs, I have another excerpt for you:
“Delta Airlines has the rest of the industry worried. A union official said, “Delta is very paternalistic. If they are making money, they want their employees to share in the wealth, regardless of what other carriers think. The airlines that followed Delta in the last round of negotiations really had a hard act to follow.
In the spring of 1974, Delta negotiated a 30% increase in pay, not including increases in pensions or other benefits, over a two-year contract. Delta ‘s pilots have pensions and disability income plans comparable with the rest of the industry.”
---- Aviation Week & Space Technology, July 12, 1976