Didn't look at every thread but haven't seen much on the full objective of this theatrical show BAKU-CEYHAN PIPELINE 1 MILLION BPD
Since the Rose revolution the USA have increased the pressure in the Caucasus by arming and training both the Georgian and the Azeri armed forces, allegedly using Israelis for much of the work in Georgia, as if they don't have enough trouble at home ! and of course the cheerful new age mercenaries of Blackwater in Azerbaijan.
My little theory, and I am sure that there are a few of you out there willing to jump on it is the following series of chess moves;
1. US tries to get Georgia admitted to NATO as a bona-fide reason for placing NATO troops and influence on top of the new pipeline. EU member countries of NATO reject this idea as they see it as provocative.
2. "advisors" of Georgian President convince him that lightning (Israeli style) operation to seize South Ossetia would present an olympic fait accompli, knowing of course that the Russians would not see it that way.
3. Georgians attempt the lightning strike but end up rebuffed by the Russians and crying for help from the west to protect them from the results of an agression that they started. The west, particularly the EU still not taking the bait.
4. As the Americans hoped, the Russians over play their hand and can't resist the opportunity to "punish" Georgia, true to form. Throw in a very unhelpful and provocative missile defense agreement with Poland at the right time to stoke up Russia's deepest fears provoking an ill advised comment by a Russian General and you have all of the poorly armed and defended new EU states panicking and pressing old Europe to accept the US request to bring georgia in to NATO.
5. Georgia comes in to NATO, US will probably sign SOFA and base forces there, build a couple of airfields and hey presto, those 1 million bpd on Baku-Ceyhan pipeline come under US control.
So predictably the US strategists are better at chess than the Russian ones who as usual get biceps and brains mixed up (well they both begin with B don't they ?)
Meanwhile we all take a step closer to another major war, with the emerging Chinese happy to sit on the sidelines and pick up the pieces.
Who's wearing the black hats,I say that BOTH the Russians and the AMERICANS are wearing black hats in all this, one however has better
PR skills than the other. For the Russians its almost forgivable as they are over-sensitive, politically naive and stupid ! whats the US excuse as the world's moral leaders. As for the Georgians and Ossetians they are mostly wearing burial shrouds and bandages as a result of being the meat in the US/Russian sandwich.
Meanwhile I am waiting to see if it occurs to the Russians to build missile defence screens in Cuba and Venezuela, after all the largest terrorist attack in history (9/11) was carried out by US green card holders ! and will the US be pleased to see them in the backyard (I doubt it !)
