Dick, my understanding of the ATSB role is that they determine what happened from the facts they are presented with. They could not determine that the aerial had become disconnected or was faulty. That would be supposition.
Nor is it their role to decide what should have happened. Yes, they can make recommendations to prevent future crashes but only based on certain facts which in this case, were not certain.
I can understand your frustration with the present system but to criticise the ATSB for not presenting a report that would be based on probability is not going to help.