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Old 6th Aug 2008, 14:16
  #45 (permalink)  
BelArgUSA
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AEP
Age: 80
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Probabilities and simple math...

Thinking about the "extreme" reliability of reciprocating engines...
And the excessive power of engines fitted on light aircraft...
xxx
Looks like many people still do not "get it" in their head... yet...
With a light twin, you have twice (double) the odds of getting into deep troubles...
That is, compared to single engine airplanes. This is known, in math, as "probability"...
Exactly like "Roulette" in Macao, Monte Carlo or Mar del Plata...
If an engine fails as average every 5,000 hrs (???), a twin will have one engine failing every 2500 hrs...
Are you well trained, and fully proficient... ? Will that propeller feather as it is supposed to...?
Will your remaining engine run ok at max continuous power, for the longest minutes of your flight...?
xxx
I recall this doctor (or was he a dentist, or a lawyer)...?
Like many of these brilliant professionals, was not too knowledgeable when playing pilot.
He had an old Bonanza, which he sold to buy a PA-23 Apache...
Two motors, he told me... so much safer...! - Correct.
I was told, that if 1 engine is out, an Apache has vertical speed of about 200 FPM descent...
In English, a powered glider... Just increases your options of crash sites...
xxx
Unverified statistic I was told, by an experienced worldwide lightplane ferry pilot...
Toby was his name... "Shark-bait" was his nickname... Did numerous California to Hawaii crossings... 2300 NM...
There are more oceanic ditchings of light twins, than there are ditchings of single engine lightplanes, per flight time hours.
He told me that it was based on insurance company statistics... These are experts, are they...?
I have to say I believe him more, than doctors, dentists and lawyers knowledge of planes...
xxx

Happy contrails
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