Directive before winter; risk and Sod's Law.
Warning: I'm non-professional; not crew, not engineer - just scientist guest and thanks.
We have already speculated on some form of directive/restriction on ETOPS being issued before the onset of the northern hemisphere winter.
The AAIB might not issue such a document until:
1) the northern hemisphere, summer, holiday season has passed,
2) the Beijing Olympics are over,
3) all interested parties are in agreement with the need for restrictions,
4) and, the AAIB has determined that its investigations are unlikely to find a cause and solution before the northern winter.
And, maybe, we should not be surprised if the restrictions apply to all aircraft, not just Boeing 777s. That way the authorities create a commercially level playing field; probably a prerequisite for success with point 3 above.
Much has been written recently, on this tread, about the acceptance of risk. I cannot pretend to understand the basis for the statistical arguments for the low probability of a second occurrence of the BA038 incident but I remind myself that, for example, a 1 in 100 year event can occur in any year, i.e. there could be a second occurence in 2009. That's called Sod's Law.
And, I suspect that even the most competent, and confident, investigating statistician or engineer might, on hearing that his children or grandchildren were about to fly across Siberia in January-March, suggest they take another route, or have his/her fingers crossed all the way.
Can you engineers truthfully say otherwise?
(I apologise for using emotive phrasing and for appearing to attack engineers - not so; the words are chosen to highlight our collective complaisance or, in too many cases, cynical avoidance, regarding the proper understanding of risk assessments and the probability of recurrence.)
On another matter, pilots, as I understand them, have a highly developed understanding of Sod's Law. Basically they are aware, individually and collectively, that luck can run out at any time. Therefore I would be fascinated to learn if pilots have already altered their flight management behaviour, for example, spooling up the engines on descent a couple of times - just to make sure! As I've written before, better to discover a problem with a few thousand feet to spare rather than 720.
Regards, Tanimbar