I don't think we will have a recession, at least technically (defined as 2 quarters of falling output). However there is no doubt that we are having a slowdown. This problem stems from the states where we have seen a massive reduction in capital spending from American companies ie it is the American consumer continuing to spend that is holding things up. Fortunately recent employment data from over there has been strong, suggesting things won't collapse soon.
However, because of the slowdown companies are sending their executives travelling less frequently and since these guys sit at the front of the plane the seats are still getting filled, but it's the wrong seats!
Hope this makes sense as I've had a few drinks !
