I would like to see this report by so-called experts who think oil will be $70/bbl by 2009. I can only assume they have sold large quantities of oil for the last quarter of this year at prices well below $140/bbl and are desperately trying to talk the price down! Brokers are set to lose many $Billions in the next 12 months after having sold oil futures around $100/bbl.
Every forecast I have read in the recent past forecasts the price to remain stable at around $150/bbl and then to increase again to around$170/bbl by 2010. Not one report, of many I have read, forecasts a reduction below $130/bbl any time soon.
The era of cheap oil is long gone. (Unless you have an airline based above an oil well!)
Many years ago, the car producing countries around the world had numerous manufacturers churning out myriad models. Post war economies were tight and many manufacturers went under or were bought out by larger, stronger competitors. The airline industry is going through exactly the same process now.
It is no good trying to ignore the fact that there will be cutbacks, redundancies, takeovers and closures. Jobs will go and recovery will be slow and take many years, if it comes at all.
A few entrepreneurs have tried to start new car companies but almost all have failed in the past.
The airline industry will fare little better, I fear.