My ten cents
My ten cents to this thread:
It is not the first Oil crisis I have been witnessing.
Obviously, geopolitics has to do something with the current one (War in Iraq, Iran nuclear uncertainty, …). In US, the elections are on going and there is a high probability of a re-orientation of the US policy on the International scene once the elections are over… This should quieten down the situation and bring back oil prices to more reasonable levels. So we have still several months to go in this storm; there will be some casualties in the Airlines industry, but those passing through will become stronger during the recovery period which will follow.
Who will go down? Interesting question, but difficult to answer because some hidden immaterial components like political or banking relationships between managers are not visible… However one point, Airlines which have based their business only on Passengers ignoring freight are more fragile. The Cargo activity is less sensitive to crisis…
Hard days, but “After the rain, the sun…”