I wish I could accurately predict the future price of commodities. if I could, I wouldn't be a pilot!
But I think it's safe to say the current oil price is fairly 'artificial'. Why is this? One reason is that as equities lose their gloss, other forms of investment are becoming more popular. Look at how food prices rapidly rose as people got on the biofuel bandwagon. And oil is about the most lucrative. Each gallon of oil is sold several times over before it ends up in an aircraft's tanks. Hedge funds (which benifited from the financial deregulation pst 9/11) have been buying commodities for quick returns. Because despite their name, most hedge funds are managed by people who are paid mostly in bonuses based on their curent performance. They need quick returns and oil speculation is one way they can acheive this.
Will the price stay high? Who knows. But I would suggest that commodities speculation is just as risky as any investment and it could go either way. But if the speculators who are willing to take the risks (and hedge funds are having a hard time right now) become fewer in number, the price should stabilise and probably head downwards.