It's certainly very interesting to hear the informative contributions of many in this thread both from an aviation and financial perspective. Though I am far from offering any experienced based opinion from either of these aspects I am nonetheless concerned at the absence throughout of the keyword we refer to as Iran. I am of the belief that this single variable could have a far more tsunami effect on things than the relatively simple economic vibes we are discussing.
When you have an outgoing president more than happy to pull the trigger and let the common man and woman suffer the economic backlash of such actions then I raise more than an eyebrow. When unnamed sources begin commenting on 'imminent' or always suffixing media communications with "but we won't rule out military action" then I am more than concerned for the fragility of the aviation industry and begin thinking seriously about my future and that of my family. With so many pivotal if not vital interests well within Iran's radius we could be in real trouble. When that first Iranian missile shoots across the tanker navigating the just 23 mile wide hormuz strait then insurance will evaporate and the financial markets will PANIC. The cost of oil will make $200 a barrell look like a Christmas present. Those that stated they had been mislead about the Iraq war seem to be stepping straight back into line again for another mistake of epic proportions, wisdom it seems exists only in hindsight.
Such a scenario would wipe out any roads leading into aviation. I'm thinking big picture here and not the technical orientated commentry of previous posters who are spot on with their views. I may not be a building inspector but I know that blazing building is going to fall. I may not be food scientist but know that the food lying on the kitchen floor is going to do more than turn you green
I'm sure you get the picture.