The reality is that oil production is down in many countries, including Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria.
Most of which are not investing in new capacity, because there simply isn't any incentive.
Iraq is; however there is going to a be a **** storm when the Iraqi's realise that the oil ministry have used Saddam's laws, bypassing Parliament, to hand contract's to Western oil companies. Contacts that have been written by US government lawyers.