Ratter,
it was long indeed! But unless I am missing something (which is possible) it is already incorrect.
VB have been unprofitable for a couple of months already, after announcement of year end result being lower than its half year (i.e. second half will be loss) and forecast for 08/09 is a loss. We dont need to wait for 2010 to see if
VB will be unprofitable, we know they are now.
The big question is whether QF Group will go the same way? (i.e. become unprofitable)Time will tell as FY08/09 progresses and the new fuel price takes its place..and we see just how much of a market downturn there might be. QF has the added benefit of a better domestic business traveller model. Although the conditions may not suit the profitability of Jetstar (in its own right), its lower cost base may help QF keep (two brand strategy) the limited money of vacationers away from
VB, which may in turn strangle them. The added ability of QF to park old fully depreciated aircraft without any real cost/loss will help them should there be a large market downturn.
Unless someone with a lot of money rescues
VB, all that QF need to worry about is surviving longer than
VB and then 95% market share again...just like 7 years ago...
This time might be different...someone like SQ (or even EK) might like the assets/business of
VB more than Ansett (once V-Aust) is up and running and buy in at a bargain and give them both a large footprint in the Aust/NZ market and the dreame of Trans Pacific market. Of course for that V-Oz needs to remain majority Australian owned.
More questions than answers still...