PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Old 24th Jun 2008, 03:14
  #936 (permalink)  
nich-av
 
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sawaya has emailed me apologising for his rambled nonsense postings and promised never to post on this thread again. Which was probably best for all concerned.
I can't imagine he e-mailed you and apologised just like that. I'm pretty sure you did something that would force him to do that.

Sayawa, do you work for P & O? The reason I ask, is that the thought that a semi-literate sociopath such as yourself might one day worm his way onto the flightdeck of a public transport aircraft suddenly makes me want to avoid flight at all costs...
Sawaya may not speak perfect English, but he may speak more languages than you do.

English is the common aviation language, but did you know that:

You need to be able to speak and write/read French to get a job with Air France
You need to speak and write/read German to apply with Lufthansa
You need to speak and write/read Italian to apply at any Italian airline
You need to speak and write/read Spanish to apply at most Spanish airlines
Same for Portuguese, Greek and Danish airlines.

Point 2. you don't need to be a master in English literature to become a pilot.

This guy is not for real.... this thread has already seen a dozen like him (remember Nichebei Aviation?).
Sawaya is right.
See, we've seen hundreds of articles posted by WWW and others concerning the housing crisis. How come they've stopped posting these articles?

2 points here:

Point 1: No one's posting them anymore because the housing crisis has not lasted 20 years as some predicted and there's nothing anymore about it in the headlines, simply because the crisis has vanished in no time.

Point 2: The guys who were posting them realised that housing crisis was not interconnecting with ab-initio pilot jobs.
2 reasons: -Reason 1 People who could not pay off their loans can not afford to travel
-Reason 2, interest rates increasing from 6.5% to 7.5% are a non-issue for people loaning 60K for training.

So what's the real issue at this moment?
That's right, energy crisis and the resulting food crisis.

Who are the potential actors who make crude oil sustain a value 4 times higher than its original value?

-Governments and lobbyists who want to make someone electable
-Western oil companies earning record profits
-Financial institutions that lost money in the housing crisis
-Private investors
-Opec

Out of these 5, I think the last is the least likely.
Somehow, the first and the second interact, make a good mix and can explain many things. A fatal question is: why would the US threaten the Middle-East with a new war if they badly need to lower oil prices? Maybe they're simply not trying to lower oil prices.

Only when and if the bubble blows, will we know who's behind it, because those people will lose alot of money. The least detectable will of course be the government.

Future prospects:
After the elections in November there will be two possible patterns:

-bubble bursts and oil price descends to a healthy 90$ in 2009.
-oil rises over 150$, OPEC starts quoting oil in different currencies than the USD. The US economy will crash together with the oil prices and the dollar.(also, a new war in the Middle-East, new issues, maybe even a civil war in the US because of desperation)

Immediate and easy solution?
Opec start quoting oil in euro or any other stable currency, making oil prices crash (because American speculators will no longer be able to hedge their falling buck into oil). Collateral damage: US economy to the ground.

Why is it not applied?
Because the US are still the biggest customer of OPEC, and unless OPEC sees demand from other countries decreasing strongly as a result of the high prices, they won't do it.

Last edited by nich-av; 24th Jun 2008 at 03:28.
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