PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Israeli Air Force practices for Iranian strike
Old 22nd Jun 2008, 19:49
  #55 (permalink)  
BenThere
Hardly Never Not Unwilling
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: USA
Posts: 481
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I was speculating on the timing of a possible attack and concluded that if McCain is elected, Bush would trust him to not allow Iranian accession to nuclear weapons, but might feel compelled to take drastic action between the election and Jan. 20 if Obama wins. Just a hunch.

As for Israeli combat range, the presence of bases in Iraq and even logistics and tanker support from US assets in theatre is plausible.

Iran has no friends in the Gulf, and the US hasn't been paid for the perdiem owed its State Department civil servants while unwilling guests of Ahmadinejad and company in 1979-80.

The strategy doesn't need to be to destroy Iran's entire nuclear target set, but to neutralize major Quds/Revguard installations and try to decapitate the ruling regime. An invasion is not in the cards. The people of Iran no longer desire the rule of the mullahs and would be likely to take care of the loose ends themselves. Should the regime survive, could it afford to cut off Hormuz, thus depriving it of its own oil lifeblood? Not if it intends to survive, itself.

I wouldn't go so far as to predict such a scenario, but I think it's more likely than other fantasies I've read on this thread.
BenThere is offline