PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Old 21st Jun 2008, 04:48
  #909 (permalink)  
nich-av
 
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Oh is that all?

Believe me,some things will get alot worth over the next 6 months.
I see at least 1 major US airline (NW, UA, US??) going down.

But guess what? The housing Cumulonimbus is making place for a recovering Nimbostratus but it'll take time before we get out of the energy crisis we're in at this very moment.

I guess that the OPEC meeting over this weekend will play a crucial role. OPEC is expected to announce a (temporary) rise in oil production. This move is not a bid to bring back a balance in demand/supply but to help OPEC's number one customer out of a crisis. News is the only thing that can change the oil prices right now, and good news can help alot to restore a healthy balance.

Anyone read it in the headlines yesterday? Americans drove 1.4 billion less miles in April 2008. With cars averaging 20mpg, that's 70 million gallons of gas saved over a month and a bit over twice as many gallons of crude! Which approximately equals to 4 million barrels, or a reduction of 0.5~0.6% in total oil consumption in the U.S. compared to a year earlier, if we only consider what's being saved on the roads. With all the airlines grounding up to 25% of their fleets, I see demand for Jet fuel decreasing as well. All in all, oil demand should be decreasing by up to 2% compared to 2007 in the US during the summerly months.

How long is this going to last?
Another 3 months? 6 months? I think that it'll last till December and that we'll see oil start its plundge towards 80$ around Christmas. We have interesting times ahead, and I'm looking forward to see what tricks airlines will come up with and what the recovery will look like.

Pilot jobs for pilots victim of lay-offs?
I talked to a few US Airways pilots a few days ago, and they looked very excited when talking about the Middle East, more specifically EK... so not much to worry about for these folks. By the way, Dubai is expected to sign a 3-digit order for their new LCC operation at the Farnborough show.

And no one noticed this one?

TORONTO - Bombardier Aerospace's (TSX: BBD-B.TO) sale of up to 110 Learjet 60 XR mid-sized business aircraft is the largest Learjet order in history, David Coleal, vice-president of the Kansas-based Learjet division, said Friday.
It comes on the heels of another order for 20 of the jets, said Coleal, general manager of operations in Wichita, Kan., where the jets are built.
Twenty-five of the orders announced Friday are firm, worth US$340 million, and the 85 conditional orders would raise the value of the contract to US$1.5 billion, Bombardier said.
The purchase by an undisclosed European customer is "tremendous from the standpoint of the demand for this product in this market segment," Coleal said from Wichita.
While it's a good-sized order, a Toronto-based analyst said it has added significance because it indicates the corporate jet sales cycle still has some steam in it.
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/2...10-60-xrs.html

Last edited by nich-av; 21st Jun 2008 at 05:17.
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