QF skywalker
I can appreciate where you are coming from but at least you have overnights a max of 18 (for some with enough senority of course). Spare a thought for Melbourne based crew only 8 overnights (once again with senority) with a lot of junior crew in Melbourne also on reserve and only Syd returns. So its just not Cairns.
As for direct transfers to long haul, good luck all hell would break loose if that was to occur and all the beehives would fight to the end to ensure you didnt get there before them. If transfers "were" to occur to long haul I would think it would be off the transfer list and Cairns crew would then be transfered to Sydney/Melbourne or Perth.
If the base was to close and the Perth transfer issue arose again it may mean that some Cairns crew would be offered Perth over the other bases I suppose.