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Thread: Outlook for USD
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Old 9th June 2008 | 03:05
  #13 (permalink)  
Arrowhead
 
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 290
Likes: 9
From: Europe
Initially this is all about the direction of interest rates. The US cut rates aggressively, and so its currency slumped. The UK cut a little, and so has largely held ground with the USD recently. The ECB has maintained rates, so teh EUR has strengthened.

But the US has recently signalled that it has cut as much as it can, given inflation. However the UK has said the same and so has the ECB. So it looks like everyone's interst rates will stay the same for a while, and so exchange rates should too.

BUT this is also about economics. With the USD at a record low, its export machine will go into overdrive. If the dollar slips 50% then people stop buying Airbus and they start buying Boeing. Billions of dollars worth, and more than the US can ever print. So their economy starts to warm up (relatively speaking), making space for rate increases - well thats the theory anyway. Also the US will not have a war-mongering president (and oil import bill) for much longer.

My guess is things stabilise here for a year or so, and then the USD gains ground as its economy is first out of "recession" and it raises rates first. Very interesting that it seems to have hit its limit at 2.05 to the GBP, and may havew stalled at 1.55-1.60 to the Euro.

Just dont put your savings into a bank that is likely to go bankrupt.
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