My perf manual shows ALD for 60t A320, on wet rwy, conf full, 10kt tailwind, at 3000 ft amsl to be 1600m. However I operate under JARs and RLD for me in this case would be 1.92xALDdry and that's 2120m.
Agreed !
Also 60t is an estimate. At the time being, we don't know if it was the real weight.
Of course not, but that is about the minimum weight I could imagine, not willing to go into intricate calculations based on pax weights, estimated cargo or so. I didn't even consider the weight of the deadheading crew.
All the performance derive from that - estimated - baseline value.
The perf margins I took went further as I took the touch-down Vref = Vls and the Vref speed will only vary by 1 kt / ton.
I have to say here that there is absolutely no value judgement on the crew from me. I am just saying that the margins for mishandling were narrow. Very narrow.
As for the -very popular on Prune - theory of a desperate attempt at a late go-around, the maths don't bear it out :
Estimated landing speed : 148 kts
Estimated speed abeam the camera : 100 kt
Estimated speed at the crash site : less than 40 kt
All point to a continuous, albeit insufficient deceleration, and use of brakes (smoking hot as per one of the initial videos, did they start a fire ?).
Now the theory that they had not full flaps. It is very possible, in a HF sense as the procedures on a circling approach call for config 2 / Gear down at the straight-in approach break and final selection of full flaps on base / final turn. Some airlines, though, call for full flaps throughout the circling. Need to knowe TACA's SOPs on this.
Bubbers theory could well be possible here (I don't believe I would ever see the day I'd agree with him ).