As a few other posters have stated the key issue as far as recruitment is concerned is the affordability of aviation going forward. Not only will flying become more expensive in the face of long term fuel price increases but also the ability of individuals to afford flights in the face of an increased cost of living (running a car, home heating, electricity, food etc) will diminish. Capacity is already reducing. For those working for airlines with deep pockets things may not be so bad: as weaker airlines collapse, those remaining will have a greater market share in a marketplace with fewer competitors.
As to surplus vs shortage: I suspect within a few years there will be a surplus of experienced flightcrew. By experienced I simply mean holding an ATPL. I also believe there will continue be a surplus of CPL/IR holders in Europe looking for a break into the airline industry.
sr